ANALYSIS: Isaac del Toro or Juan Ayuso? Who has the better chance of a podium at the 2026 Tour de France
Cycling
The Tour de France is just around the corner and, barring a major surprise, it seems the fight for the yellow jersey will once again be reserved for Tadej Pogacar and Jonas Vingegaard. They have monopolised the race in recent years, and imagining a different outcome means picturing a completely unexpected scenario.
That leaves a very interesting question: who will take the third step on the podium in Paris? Several huge names are in that fight. Remco Evenepoel returns as an obvious reference point, Florian Lipowitz wants to confirm the leap he made last season, and the young Paul Seixas has become the great revelation of the year. But from a Hispanic perspective, all eyes are on Isaac del Toro and Juan Ayuso.
If I had to pick a favourite today to complete the podium, my choice would be Isaac del Toro. The Mexican arrives after producing an almost flawless season. He has shown himself to be competitive in every major race he has entered, and he gives off a sense of solidity that invites optimism. On top of that, the context at UAE Team Emirates – XRG clearly works in his favour.
Racing alongside Pogacar does not automatically mean giving up on a major individual result. Quite the opposite. We have already seen on other occasions how riders such as Adam Yates and Joao Almeida have used the strength of the team to stay with the best while the Slovenian settled the race. Del Toro could perfectly repeat that script.
He will have the calm of not carrying all the responsibility, he will be backed by one of the strongest squads in the peloton, and when the decisive moment arrives in the high mountains, he should have the legs to follow the favourites. If that happens, the podium will stop being an illusion and become a completely realistic objective.
His experience at the last Giro d’Italia, where he came very close to winning the general classification, has also given him lessons that could prove decisive in a race as demanding as the Tour.
The case of Juan Ayuso is different
The Valencian is probably facing one of the most important races of his entire sporting career. His departure from UAE responded to a very clear idea: he wanted to lead a project with the Tour de France as its major objective. Now comes the moment to prove that bet made sense.
His season, however, leaves far more questions. He started at a very high level, but crashes and physical problems interrupted a progression that had looked extremely promising. At the Tour Auvergne Rhone Alpes, he showed very interesting flashes, finishing as the second-best climber behind Del Toro, although the difference between the two was clear. Is that enough of a reference point to draw conclusions? Probably not.
Ayuso has more than enough quality to fight for a Grand Tour. I remain convinced of that. What still needs to be proven is whether that moment has already arrived and, above all, whether he can do it specifically in a Tour where he will be up against two riders like Pogacar and Vingegaard.
That is why I believe this edition could mark a before and after in his career. Not because a poor result would condemn him, but because a convincing performance would strengthen the project Lidl-Trek has built around him and confirm that he can be one of the great general classification references of the next decade.
Juan Ayuso in action at Itzulia Basque Country 2026
Ultimately, both have arguments for dreaming of the podium, although they arrive by very different routes.
Del Toro offers more certainty, more continuity and a level of form that makes him the main candidate for that third place. Ayuso, by contrast, represents the great unknown: a rider with unquestionable talent, but one who still needs to show he can turn that potential into results when the stage is the most demanding in world cycling.
If I had to make a prediction today, I would place Isaac del Toro as my favourite to join Pogacar and Vingegaard on the podium in Paris. But precisely that uncertainty around Juan Ayuso is one of the great attractions with which this Tour de France begins.
Juan LarraCycling Journalist
Juan Larra is a writer for Cyclinguptodate and editor-in-chief of Ciclismoaldia, where he has played a central role since its inception. Under his leadership, the website has become a trusted source for professional cycling coverage, offering in-depth analysis, news, and feature stories.
A sports journalist with over 20 years of experience, Juan earned his degree in Journalism from the University of Seville in 2007. He began his career covering a wide range of sports—including football, basketball, Formula 1, MotoGP, tennis, and cycling—for platforms such as the official La Liga app, Vodafone and Movistar websites, NBA Blogdebasket, and Cadena Cope, honing his skills in writing and editorial management.
In addition to his work at Ciclismoaldia, Juan contributes to Cyclinguptodate and serves as editor-in-chief for the tennis-focused site Tenisaldia. Throughout his career, he has conducted exclusive interviews with cyclists and sports figures, provided detailed analysis of competitions ranging from local Spanish races to major international events, and acted as a special correspondent at prestigious races including Paris-Roubaix, the Tour de France, and the Vuelta a España.
Juan’s combination of experience, expertise, and direct access to athletes has established him—and the platforms he leads—as authoritative voices in professional cycling.
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- Who cares what Bruyneel thinks. He and his best mate Lance, the biggest fraud in the history of sport, have no place commenting on anything but how to lie and cheat!whit2pet02-11-2026
- Eeesh!Lozza02-11-2026
- bravo! a rider likes jonas needs motivation and he needs to believe in being able to reach goals. he - like anybody else in the world - doesn't believe that he can win the tdf with pogi present. and what's it worth for when pogi is not there? second class victory only. he has checked all three grand tours, so what is left if not retire? the classics! go for it, jonas!Ketterechts02-11-2026
- i am sure that under the pretext of medical examination a lot worse has happened when they were under.abstractengineer02-11-2026
- dude, Lemond never even was in the same race as Armstrong. He throws all these aspersions on other American riders who might usurp his throne as the greatest ever American racer. He doesn't say a single thing about (foreign) dopers who he actually raced against. Biggest douchebag move ever. I used to revere that guy, now I despise him. His actions are so weird.fatsupermodel02-11-2026
- This is just stupid, You do what you are good at not what you are weak at. He has no results to speak of when he participated. Even Froome, Conatdor had very little. With Pogi there he wont win none of the classics. he is already 30+ with a few years left at the top. It takes years to get good at classics. Is that really worth the effort???abstractengineer02-11-2026
- Sure, little fella.awp02-11-2026
- You'll be the ongoing joke of 2027 with anything you post here!frieders302-11-2026
- Awwww your inside information must be from PogiFanGirl. You two daughters of different mothers?frieders302-11-2026
- Hey PogIFanGirl...wipe that cream from your lips! You're ever loving drooling and whatever you have for Tadej has your brain fried!frieders302-11-2026
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