"His freshness could be an advantage" - Danish expert names Oscar Onley as favourite for Vuelta second place
CyclingSaturday, 22 August 2026 at 01:00
The main question of 2026 Vuelta a Espana is not who will win - but who will complete the podium behind Tadej Pogacar. For the two vacant spots, you could count up to ten promising contenders. And according to Anders Lund, Felix Gall stands at the front of the chasing pack.
"In that hierarchy, when we take Pogačar away, Gall is clearly number two in my eyes," says the Eurosport's cycling expert.
Lund further points out one aspect which should play in Gall's favor - that he had much longer rest since the Giro d'Italia in May, compared to some of the men who have competed at the Tour de France until three weeks ago.
"Skjelmose, Carapaz and Tobias Halland Johannessen all come straight from the Tour. That shouldn't be the optimal preparation for racing in the Vuelta classification. So Gall is in a better position," explains Lund. "I think those three will fight for the podium."
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Even though Lund doesn't rank Onley among the biggest podium candidates, there's not denying that the Brit arrives to Spanish Grand Tour in a great shape after his second place at the Vuelta a Burgos.
Keep Onley out of harm's way...
And then there's the fact Onley will only ride his first Grand Tour of 2026 (because of injuries), which could play in his favor according to Lund.
"I could maybe have a little trick for Oscar Onley there. Onley has been inconsistent during the season, but his freshness and recent performance could be an advantage," he assesses.
So the key part for Netcompany INEOS will be to keep their leader safe in the presumably more chaotic opening stages: "On the other hand, he has also been so fragile this year. But he comes with a freshness, a sharpness and self-confidence after his performance in Burgos," says Lund.
Trial by fire for Skjelmose
For Mattias Skjelmose, riding two Grand Tours in a single season will be a new step in his career. At 25 years of age, the team deems him ready for the task. And Skjelmose is not at Vuelta "just to ride". He is the ever-ambitious Lidl-Trek's main (and only) GC card, aiming for at least a top-5 result. But Lund believes podium is not out of the Dane's reach.
Mattias Skjelmose at the 2026 Tour de France
"A lot of it is about both mentally and physically how he has come out of the Tour de France. Whether he is ready to suffer again," he acknowledges.
Skjelmose, on the other hand, can gain an important advantage on the Vuelta's 32-kilometer time trial on stage 18. "If he can pull off as good individual starts as he did in the Tour [finished 3rd behind Evenepoel and Pogacar, ed.], then he at least has the confidence."
Carapaz cannot be underestimated
Finally, nobody will dare to doubt Richard Carapaz's motivation coming into this Vuelta. The Ecuadorian was one of the best riders in the final week of the Tour where he won two stages, mountains classification and finished 8th overall. And all of that while coming into the race without a set goal.
The situation is different at Vuelta where the team declared in advance that the entire lineup is built around the former Giro d'Italia winner, words that are amplified by Ecuadorian's second place at Clasica San Sebastian.
"Carapaz also looked like someone who had really gotten into shape. And especially in San Sebastián," says Lund.
Finally, Lund doesn't entirely discard veteran Primoz Roglic from the Vuelta a Espana spotlight. The four-time champion had a gritty run-up to Vuelta, but at the end of the day arrives as Red Bull's undsiputed leader.
"Roglič is a bit of a joker. He has been good, but has seemed like he has been a bit unfocused. He must have found another spark," Lund concludes his analysis.
Ondrej ZhasilCycling Journalist
Ondřej Zhasil is a cycling journalist at CyclingUpToDate and has been part of the team since 2023. He is based in Ostrava, the third-largest city in the Czech Republic, and covers professional cycling across the main UCI competitions, including the Tour de France, the Giro d’Italia, and La Vuelta a España. A key focus of his work is startlist analysis and pre-race coverage, where he examines team selections, rider line-ups, and tactical scenarios ahead of major events.
Alongside WorldTour coverage, Ondřej has developed specific expertise in junior cycling and in racing across East Asia, including competitions in China and Japan. He also maintains a broad working knowledge of other disciplines and levels, including cyclocross, while continuing to expand his understanding of mountain bike racing.
Ondřej holds a bachelor’s degree in Mathematics and Physics, which supports his analytical, data-driven approach to performance and race analysis. In his reporting, he regularly uses ProCyclingStats for results, statistics, and historical context. He places strong emphasis on careful sourcing, editorial accuracy, and updating articles promptly when new, verified information becomes available.
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- Visma a transition for sure and its not looking that good or hard to aknowledge i think to say something seem rotten there now. Also they have no money it seems its matters alot. I think Magnus Cort is right and jonas would be better of leaving Visma as things are there nowmiguel22-08-2026
- uae also developed Del toro higher ranked than jonas on rankings now this year. Its very easy to both see and aknowledge something is rotten at Visma with how they decline and all leavnig. Alot of chaos at Vismamiguel22-08-2026
- PogiSloCLOWNMouse barfs out more nonsense!frieders322-08-2026
- You're just a f'in CLOWN ! Mommy shouod take away your keyboard!frieders322-08-2026
- do you really have to ask? read what all riders say, yates quit contract and the boss also mid contract. Its very obvious something is rotten at Visma yes. And not to say the boss has even said they are broke and cant keep up but ur here pretending their buying world class riders? I dont know what more to say to you if you dont get this when its this obvious lolmiguel22-08-2026
- A great career - he was so fun to watch. I remember when the "big 3" was MVDP, WVA, and JA. He fell off quickly after a few big crashes, but was always such a gentleman in interviews and to his fellow cyclists. And he showed real class in the Quick-Step break up.mij22-08-2026
- I hope Gall does well - seems like such a great guy. Mads too.mij22-08-2026
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