"His freshness could be an advantage" - Danish expert names Oscar Onley as favourite for Vuelta second place
Cycling
The main question of 2026 Vuelta a Espana is not who will win - but who will complete the podium behind Tadej Pogacar. For the two vacant spots, you could count up to ten promising contenders. And according to Anders Lund, Felix Gall stands at the front of the chasing pack.
"In that hierarchy, when we take Pogačar away, Gall is clearly number two in my eyes," says the Eurosport's cycling expert.
Lund further points out one aspect which should play in Gall's favor - that he had much longer rest since the Giro d'Italia in May, compared to some of the men who have competed at the Tour de France until three weeks ago.
"Skjelmose, Carapaz and Tobias Halland Johannessen all come straight from the Tour. That shouldn't be the optimal preparation for racing in the Vuelta classification. So Gall is in a better position," explains Lund. "I think those three will fight for the podium."
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Even though Lund doesn't rank Onley among the biggest podium candidates, there's not denying that the Brit arrives to Spanish Grand Tour in a great shape after his second place at the Vuelta a Burgos.
Keep Onley out of harm's way...
And then there's the fact Onley will only ride his first Grand Tour of 2026 (because of injuries), which could play in his favor according to Lund.
"I could maybe have a little trick for Oscar Onley there. Onley has been inconsistent during the season, but his freshness and recent performance could be an advantage," he assesses.
So the key part for Netcompany INEOS will be to keep their leader safe in the presumably more chaotic opening stages: "On the other hand, he has also been so fragile this year. But he comes with a freshness, a sharpness and self-confidence after his performance in Burgos," says Lund.
Trial by fire for Skjelmose
For Mattias Skjelmose, riding two Grand Tours in a single season will be a new step in his career. At 25 years of age, the team deems him ready for the task. And Skjelmose is not at Vuelta "just to ride". He is the ever-ambitious Lidl-Trek's main (and only) GC card, aiming for at least a top-5 result. But Lund believes podium is not out of the Dane's reach.
Mattias Skjelmose at the 2026 Tour de France
"A lot of it is about both mentally and physically how he has come out of the Tour de France. Whether he is ready to suffer again," he acknowledges.
Skjelmose, on the other hand, can gain an important advantage on the Vuelta's 32-kilometer time trial on stage 18. "If he can pull off as good individual starts as he did in the Tour [finished 3rd behind Evenepoel and Pogacar, ed.], then he at least has the confidence."
Carapaz cannot be underestimated
Finally, nobody will dare to doubt Richard Carapaz's motivation coming into this Vuelta. The Ecuadorian was one of the best riders in the final week of the Tour where he won two stages, mountains classification and finished 8th overall. And all of that while coming into the race without a set goal.
The situation is different at Vuelta where the team declared in advance that the entire lineup is built around the former Giro d'Italia winner, words that are amplified by Ecuadorian's second place at Clasica San Sebastian.
"Carapaz also looked like someone who had really gotten into shape. And especially in San Sebastián," says Lund.
Finally, Lund doesn't entirely discard veteran Primoz Roglic from the Vuelta a Espana spotlight. The four-time champion had a gritty run-up to Vuelta, but at the end of the day arrives as Red Bull's undsiputed leader.
"Roglič is a bit of a joker. He has been good, but has seemed like he has been a bit unfocused. He must have found another spark," Lund concludes his analysis.
Ondrej ZhasilCycling Journalist
Ondřej Zhasil is a cycling journalist at CyclingUpToDate and has been part of the team since 2023. He is based in Ostrava, the third-largest city in the Czech Republic, and covers professional cycling across the main UCI competitions, including the Tour de France, the Giro d’Italia, and La Vuelta a España. A key focus of his work is startlist analysis and pre-race coverage, where he examines team selections, rider line-ups, and tactical scenarios ahead of major events.
Alongside WorldTour coverage, Ondřej has developed specific expertise in junior cycling and in racing across East Asia, including competitions in China and Japan. He also maintains a broad working knowledge of other disciplines and levels, including cyclocross, while continuing to expand his understanding of mountain bike racing.
Ondřej holds a bachelor’s degree in Mathematics and Physics, which supports his analytical, data-driven approach to performance and race analysis. In his reporting, he regularly uses ProCyclingStats for results, statistics, and historical context. He places strong emphasis on careful sourcing, editorial accuracy, and updating articles promptly when new, verified information becomes available.
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- the headline is poorly written too. it makes it sound like their plan is to simply wait until he stops.mij13-11-2026
- It doesnt take a genius to understand that Pogi is 1 level above and Pogi is younger that Jonas, so Jonas will not win under ordinary circumstances. Pogi has to crack hard for Jonas to win. It doesn't matter whether you defend Jonas or not , facts remain facts. Jonas himself says his numbers are better than 2022/2023, so Jonas is more or less optimized and we are just see the stochastic variation due to other factors. I think he will retire along with Pedersen in WC denmarkabstractengineer13-11-2026
- They only raced each other during the 2026 Tour, but here's a few metrics to look at. Stage 3 (Granollers to Les Angles): Pogačar won the stage, finishing 2 seconds ahead of Vingegaard (2nd). Del Toro finished 24 seconds behind Stage 6 (Pau to Gavarnie-Gedre / Col du Tourmalet): Pogačar won solo, Vingegaard finished 2nd (losing 2:38), and Del Toro finished 3rd (at +2:57, finishing 19 seconds behind Vingegaard). Here, Jonas Vingegaard outclimbed Isaac del Toro by 19 seconds on the mountain stageawp13-11-2026
- your clinging to the past. Jonas was dropped by del toro many times last year and jonas never managed a climbing numers del toro did in dauphine last year -entire year. Trend is also evident theres no discussion your living in the past, its beent he same with jonas for many years now and only developing, meanwhile del toro is rising and developing greatly. This is all obvious stuff and im not even a del toro fan. No point discussing numbers or this i suspect you dont watch much now but rather think its 2022 still cause this aint hard.miguel13-11-2026
- We can go through metrics if you like, Del Toro, who I do admire and support, is not on the same level as Jonas just yet. You will see that in early 2027 if they have any crossover races. I do hope they both race the Giro. You are correct though, Jonas is getting older and will not be able to hand on much longer. I see 2027 as a good year for him. Obviously behind Tadej though.awp13-11-2026
- What wins? Are you LA operating under a pseudonym?mij13-11-2026
- My point is this - Tadej, Remco, Seixas are all the outliers. Many riders don’t hit their peak until 28. It’s way too early to write him off. And the pogi slo guy that hates him - he’s also immature. Ayuso needs time.mij13-11-2026
- Then you need to use ur eyes or head if you have cause del toro already dropped jonas two times and beat him in tdf stages already this year.. Del toro climbed(dauphine) better numbers than jonas did all year too. So ur feelings and wishful thinking doesnt amtter del toro himself has already surpassed jonas infact just facts. Its also very evident for anyone objective that Jonas is declining alot, its just the truth and super obvious.miguel13-11-2026
- None of those victories stand, so there's that,wrsty13-11-2026
- No surprise there; it is British Sycling, yes, with an S
Rafionain-Glas12-11-2026
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