ANALYSIS - How many stages can Tadej Pogacar win at the Vuelta a Espana? The figure may surprise you
CyclingTuesday, 04 August 2026 at 11:30
The confirmation that Tadej Pogacar will start the 2026 Vuelta a España has completely rewritten the race script. What looked days ago like a wide-open edition, with numerous contenders for the red jersey, has turned into a contest with a standout favourite.
The Slovenian, the current dominant force in world cycling, will chase a historic feat by conquering the Spanish Grand Tour and adding the third Grand Tour to his palmarès.
Beyond the general classification, one question is on every fan’s mind: how many stages can Pogacar win? Looking at the route designed by Javier Guillén, the opportunities for the UAE Team Emirates-XRG leader seem almost endless. Of course, what looks likely on paper can change in the race, where breakaways, team strategy, and the Slovenian’s form will all play a part. Even so, the Vuelta profile offers up to 12 days where he could start as the clear favourite to raise his arms.
A route tailor-made for the world champion
The opening stage is a short time trial of barely nine kilometres through the streets of Monaco. On paper, it is not Pogacar’s best chance, with pure specialists against the clock likely to prevail. Even so, the Slovenian should be among the best from day one.
The real chances would begin immediately after. Stage 2 finishes on an uphill kick tailor-made for an explosive rider like Pogacar, while Stage 3, with medium-mountain terrain and several chained climbs, looks even more favourable. In fact, that day could well be when he pulls on the red jersey for the first time.
Stage 4, finishing in Andorra after a very short, punchy day, is also one to circle. Although the final major climb sits relatively far from the line, the world champion has often shown he does not need to wait for the last kilometres to decide a race. His long-range attacks have become a trademark.
Not every rolling day seems designed for him. Stage 5, for example, with a third-category climb about 25 kilometres from the finish, looks better suited to other riders or even a breakaway, making it one of the few he might cross off.
Tadej Pogacar at the 2026 Tour de France
Mountains, punchy finishes and few chances for sprinters
One striking feature of the route is the scarcity of completely flat stages during the first half of the race. Stage 6, with a first-category climb barely twenty kilometres from the finish in Castellón, again opens the door to a Pogacar attack. Stage 7, finishing in Valdelinares, appears even more favourable to his strengths.
Stage 8 offers a more suitable profile for powerful riders who can handle short climbs, so it is not among the clearest options for the UAE leader. However, Stage 9, finishing atop Alto de Aitana after a route packed with climbs, again puts the Slovenian as the top candidate for victory.
After the first rest day come a few stages less favourable for the favourites. Both the finish in Elche de la Sierra and the stage ending in Lorca look designed for breakaways or for the few sprinters able to survive a demanding route. These are among the rare chances where Pogacar might simply control the race and defend the lead.
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The second half also promises a real festival
The Slovenian’s opportunities spike again in the second week. Stage 12, with a summit finish after two first-category climbs, stands out as one of the most favourable scenarios of the entire race. The iconic ascent to Sierra de la Pandera also offers perfect ground for Pogacar to distance the other red-jersey contenders.
Not every mountain day looks made for him. Some medium-mountain stages could be decided by successful breakaways, especially if UAE choose to manage their efforts with the decisive days in mind. Even so, the route keeps stacking punchy finales that clearly suit the Tour champion.
The third week finally brings two virtually flat stages reserved for sprinters. These are the only days where it seems genuinely hard to picture Pogacar fighting for the stage win, as the route stops serving up the difficulties that favour him so much.
From there, the opportunities return. The individual time trial could become another chance to add a victory, especially considering that some of his main rivals against the clock may not be present or could arrive fatigued. Finally, the finishes at Peñas Blancas, the hors catégorie climb on Stage 20, and the last day in Granada once again make him a leading favourite to close the race with another exhibition.
In total, the route analysis highlights up to twelve possible wins for Pogacar. Reaching that number is, of course, highly unlikely. The race itself, breakaways, accumulated fatigue, and UAE Team Emirates-XRG’s strategy will prevent him from contesting all those finishes at full tilt.
The most reasonable forecast is five to seven stage wins, already a spectacular tally and very close to the six he claimed during his unforgettable 2024 Giro d’Italia. What does seem certain is that, with Pogacar on the start line, the 2026 Vuelta a España will have an undisputed protagonist from the first day to the last.
Juan LarraCycling Journalist
Juan Larra is a writer for Cyclinguptodate and editor-in-chief of Ciclismoaldia, where he has played a central role since its inception. Under his leadership, the website has become a trusted source for professional cycling coverage, offering in-depth analysis, news, and feature stories.
A sports journalist with over 20 years of experience, Juan earned his degree in Journalism from the University of Seville in 2007. He began his career covering a wide range of sports—including football, basketball, Formula 1, MotoGP, tennis, and cycling—for platforms such as the official La Liga app, Vodafone and Movistar websites, NBA Blogdebasket, and Cadena Cope, honing his skills in writing and editorial management.
In addition to his work at Ciclismoaldia, Juan contributes to Cyclinguptodate and serves as editor-in-chief for the tennis-focused site Tenisaldia. Throughout his career, he has conducted exclusive interviews with cyclists and sports figures, provided detailed analysis of competitions ranging from local Spanish races to major international events, and acted as a special correspondent at prestigious races including Paris-Roubaix, the Tour de France, and the Vuelta a España.
Juan’s combination of experience, expertise, and direct access to athletes has established him—and the platforms he leads—as authoritative voices in professional cycling.
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- Tadej is not (still) the potential G.O.A.T. ... Stop stuttering... He is THE G.O.A.T. - The Greatest Of All Time.PogiSloFans04-08-2026
- Hey Jumpyjohn, this is how he should do it: Pogi says "This year I want to do the Giro again, I just love this race and the Italians." He does the Giro, wins, and then goes to the Tour. He talks nothing about the Vuelta, if asked he says "No, I'm not doing the Vuelta, I will focus on the WC." After winning the Tour he never mentions the Vuelta. Pogi and his trainer see if Pogi is feeling good and strong, if he still has good legs, then they decide. If they think he can do it... LET'S GO, POGI IS DOING THE VUELTA. OMG!!! Pogi will say "I love the Spaniards!!!" Everyone is going crazy. But if Pogi isn't feeling the best, no one says anything, he just won't go, skip the Vuelta, prepare for the WC and win it. It's a win-win situation.PogiSloFans04-08-2026
- When it comes to winning a Giro d'Italia, Tour de France and Vuelta a Espana, Maurizio Fondriest is sending a warning to Pogačar!?!? First of all, who is Fondriest to send "warnings"? Pogi doesn't know or care about him. Pogi and his trainers will be the ones to decide if he will take on all three GT's in one season. No one knows what will happen because it's never been tried before. I have the feeling that many former BS cyclists and commentators are smarter then Pogi and his team of cycling specialists.PogiSloFans04-08-2026
- You're wrong, it's not too late. This is how it's done: Pogi says "This year I want to do the Giro again, I just love this race." He does the Giro, wins, and then goes to the Tour. He talks nothing about the Vuelta, if asked he says "No, I'm not doing the Vuelta, I will focus on the WC." After winning the Tour he never mentions the Vuelta. Pogi and his trainer see if Pogi is feeling good and strong, if he still has good legs, then they decide. If they think he can do it, LET'S GO, POGI IS DOING THE VUELTA. OMG!!! Everyone is going crazy. But if Pogi isn't feeling the best, no one says anything, he just won't go, skip the Vuelta and once again win the WC. Capish?PogiSloFans04-08-2026
- yeah I was thinking the same - fairly audacious headline.mij04-08-2026
- So we have a cycling equivalent to the Penisgate storm in a teacup at the Ski Jumping event of this year's Winter Olympics!Cooldude04-08-2026
- Tadej doesn't have to win the Vuelta with a lead of more than five minutes over the first runner-up. This means he can ride leisurely, or rather, let it be his preparation for the World Championships. In addition, Remco won San Sebastian just seven days after the Tour, the World Championships are 14 days after the Vuelta... So the chances are not even close to 50/50.MajorPayne04-08-2026
- With all the possibilities that are never discussed and would create endless discussion as to whether it would be real doping, I will NEVER lay my hand in the fire to claim ANY rider is clean (especially having experienced something unexpected myself with over the counter medication as an amateur runner whilst sick). People also seem to have very short memories about what has already happened and wasn’t detected (sometimes for decades) until a mistake or thoughtless act occurred or past material was reviewed. It’s a sad fact that almost all those who want to deny the possibility there is doping, do almost ZERO research on the subject but then claim they know the facts. I don’t believe he’s consciously doing anything but that doesn’t mean nothing is happening. As for why he is so successful? He knows his forte and exploits it predictably. The sad thing is the others haven’t yet understood how to neutralise him but I won’t go into that unless someone else starts it off.Mistermaumau04-08-2026
- That’s a lot of assumptions but the 3 in a row combination has also already been achieved, not sure that would be specifically desirable to Jonas but am sure Pogi would love to have been the first/only to get all 3 GTs, something Jonas would also maybe have aimed for had Pogi not existed. Legacy is often the result of doing the right thing at the right time and for that you have to be born right. Imagine if Bubka and Duplantis had been of the same generation?Mistermaumau04-08-2026
- Was yesterday a snooze fest for you? One of the most interesting results ever in ALL of cycling.Mistermaumau04-08-2026
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