PREVIEW | Vuelta a Espana 2023 stage 3 - Arinsal summit finish the first big mountain test for Roglic, Evenepoel, Vingegaard, Thomas and more

Preview. Stage 3 of the Vuelta a Espana will be an important day. The opening two stages proved very different and very tricky challenges, but now as the riders already arrive to the mountains they face the first summit finish where moves in the overall classification are expected.

There is absolutely no time to settle in. Stage three will see the riders head north towards Andorra where they will find the first summit finish of the race. It is a high-mountain stage. After entering the microstate the riders will go up two ascents and finish in Arinsal where the first big selection should be made.

The stage starts in Spain, in Súria. The start is flat but after 20 kilometers the riders find some hilly terrain, there is potential for a breakaway with quality to go up the road. Most of the day is flat, straight, typical transitional. But then the riders cross the border to Andorra and the race changes. An intermediate sprint antecedes the first ascent.

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This is the first category Coll d'Ordino, not climbed via it's traditional side. It's 17.5 kilometers at 4.9%, mostly a big ring climb, it will not create differences but will be a warm-up. At the summit there are bonifications, although it's unlikely that riders will be burning matches with the big climb that is still to follow. The summit comes with 21 kilometers to go and the descent is very technical, almost straight into the base of the final climb.

The riders pass the town of Arinsal and then climb towards the summit finish. The climb is 8.3 kilometers long at 7.6%. The first half straightforward, the final kilometers slightly steeper and with several switchbacks. This is a climb where attacks can come towards the end, and riders will enter the ascent relatively fresh, it's not necessarily a day to take it at pace.

The Weather

Very strong northern wind. The rain will be present, albeit perhaps with less intensity. Safety issues won't be as big but it will still be an unpleasant day on the bike. Both penultimate and final climb find a headwind early in the ascent, but then with plenty hairpins it can't be said to either favour or harm attackers. Very cold temperatures are expected at the finish, 20 degrees colder than in Barcelona this Saturday, so riders have to be wary not to get sick.

The Favourites

Jumbo-Visma - Firstly, I believe no teams will really go on the offensive much. The day has tough weather, the final climb has a sizeable portion with block headwind. It's a constant climb and a day that is not that hard, I don't think big gaps will surge, most likely a small group sprint. Primoz Roglic crashed today as well so I think Jumbo-Visma will not want to risk, but nevertheless I believe he will have recovered and be a prime favourite. Jonas Vingegaard will be testing his form, whilst it's also useful for the team to keep Sepp Kuss and Wilco Kelderman up in the GC for now.

Remco Evenepoel - Remco Evenepoel is also unlikely to make much of a move, but because Quick-Step simply does not have the team to put others in distress. He can sprint and go for the stage win even if Jumbo play it out in the final kilometers. This is a good climb for him, he will want to keep himself on the front foot.

UAE Team Emirates - UAE lost the most time out of the favourite teams in the team time-trial so it must be said that they are under a little pressure to attack. They have the riders too, Marc Soler and Jay Vine are capable of tearing down the group, it will be a first test and both Juan Ayuso and João Almeida could be trying to test some of the other riders that didn't prepare for the Vuelta as keenly.

INEOS Grenadiers - INEOS are likely to also play a conservative one, with all honesty. Losing Laurens de Plus reduces their climbing capacity, whilst Geraint Thomas crashed today. The team will likely want to race in the wheels more than in the Giro where they were compact and very strong. Here others can carry the responsibilities, Thomas and Thymen Arensman will most likely gauge where they're at.

The first mountain stage is always an exciting one as we understand the form of many riders, and often we get to see a few figures cracking. On the side of riders that I expect to see in good shape on this climb are Aleksandr Vlasov who was on the podium of the Vuelta a Burgos and Michael Storer, winner of the Tour de l'Ain. Most will be finding their feet however.

Enric Mas, Cian Uijdtebroeks, Eddie Dunbar, Mikel Landa, Damiano Caruso and Max Poole are likely to go all-out in their attempts to fight for the overall classification. Other strong climbers can do the same, but if they see they just don't have the level they may equally take the foot off the gas and start thinking of breakaways such as Lennard Kämna, Lenny Martínez, Santiago Buitrago and Lennert van Eetvelt.

Prediction Vuelta a Espana 2023 stage 3:

*** Primoz Roglic, Remco Evenepoel
** Juan Ayuso, Jonas Vingegaard
* Geraint Thomas, João Almeida, Jay Vine, Aleksandr Vlasov, Enric Mas, Lenny Martínez

Pick: Primoz Roglic