ANALYSIS: Carlos Rodriguez and INEOS’s new era — leader or left behind?

The 2026 season is shaping up to be one of the most significant in recent years for INEOS Grenadiers. The team is entering a new chapter with Geraint Thomas installed as the new Director of Racing following his retirement, and the objective is clear: return the British squad to the highest level of Grand Tour racing, with the Tour de France the priority. In that context, Carlos Rodriguez’s form and long-term trajectory take on major importance.

At present, the Spanish climber remains INEOS Grenadiers’ most credible GC leader. Yet over the past two seasons he has struggled to deliver the step forward many expected. His 2025 Tour de France unravelled early, forcing him to chase opportunities through breakaways. He managed to ride himself into the top ten before a crash on stage 18 forced him out.

For a team that once dominated the Tour with riders such as Chris Froome and Geraint Thomas, fading into the background simply isn’t an option. That urgency partly explains the high-profile signing of Kevin Vauquelin.

The Frenchman arrives after finishing seventh overall at the 2025 Tour with the former Arkea setup. At 24, he is viewed as one of the leading talents of French cycling, alongside rising prospect Paul Seixas. For INEOS, he represents both long-term potential and a rider capable of returning the team to relevance in the sport’s blue-riband race. But his arrival also poses clear questions about Rodriguez’s future role.

If Vauquelin adapts quickly and asserts himself as a Grand Tour leader, Rodriguez risks being pushed into a secondary position. That would be a major setback for Spanish cycling, given he and Juan Ayuso are widely considered the country’s strongest long-term GC hopes.

However, a reduced role at INEOS might ultimately work in Rodriguez’s favour. Falling down the hierarchy could increase his market value and open possibilities elsewhere. Although he is under contract until 2027, mid-term exits are not unusual in modern cycling — Juan Ayuso’s departure from UAE to join Lidl-Trek being a recent example.

Movistar Team remains the most logical destination. They were on the verge of signing Rodriguez in 2024 before INEOS activated a contractual clause to retain him, with Movistar subsequently receiving a 4-million-euro compensation package. With their squad now undergoing a full leadership refresh, his arrival would complete the transition.

Movistar have already signed Cian Uijtdebroeks, who struggled for opportunities at Visma behind Jonas Vingegaard. Enric Mas is approaching the latter stages of his career at the top level, and Rodriguez would fit neatly into a succession plan based on age, ability and long-term consistency.

If it is not Movistar, another WorldTour leader would almost certainly appear — any scenario in which Rodriguez becomes available would be one of the defining stories of the transfer window.