PREVIEW | Tour de France 2023 stage 20 - Tadej Pogacar's chance for revival and Jonas Vingegaard's final obstacle to seal yellow jersey into Paris

Preview. The Tour de France has seem incredible spectacle almost everyday this year. It's the final mountain stage this Saturday, the riders will tackle many climbs in the Vosges on stage 20 for a final last bit of climbing fireworks.

The final mountain stage of the Tour de France takes the riders into the Vosges for a short but very explosive day. The race is not over yet, and a lot can be done in these 133 kilometers which feature 3400 meter of climbing, in the terrain that decided the Tour de France Femmes last year. The Vosges are the final mountain range to be tackled and this difference in terrain could be race changing.

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Estimated start and finish times for Tour de France stage 20: 13:30-16:55CET

The Ballon d'Alsace (11.5 kilometers, 5.3%) will open things up for the day, and the middle section of the stage will see several hilltops and descents, hard terrain to control. It will all lead to a final combination of climbs however. The ascents summits with 110 kilometers to go, it's the first of many.

There will then be four hilltops, three categorized, but fatigue will build up throughout these, and attacks may come. The toughest of which is the Col de la Croix de Moinats which is 5.2 kilometers at 7.9%. This will however be largely a transition section.

The stage is to be decided on the final two climbs. Petit Ballon (9.3Km; 8.1%) will provide terrain to attack seriously, summiting with only 24.5 kilometers to go. It is steep and has the distance, the final climb is not harder and being the final opportunity, serious moves may come here.

The riders will only have a very short and fast descent before the final climb of the race which is the Col du Platzerwasel, 7.1 kilometers at 8.4% which summit very close to the finish at Le Markstein, to conclude the battle for the yellow jersey. The summit of the climb comes with 7 kilometers to go, from there on the riders follow a plateau into the finish.

The Weather

She blows! The wind will be strong on the final day of competitive racing at the Tour. Strong southwestern wind will be felt on the day, this could be fun and lead to explosive racing as the first 80 kilometers are almost fully with cross and tailwinds, ideal for attackers, besides the difficult terrain. On the opposite side there may be a headwind in the final two climbs and run-up to the climbs.

The Favourites

Jonas Vingegaard - Jumbo-Visma only have to arrive at the finish safely. Let breakaway go, let Pogacar go, let everyone go, Vingegaard has the climbing legs and nothing points for a falter, so all he needs to do is stay upright and take it calmly in the descents. Jumbo will surely give freedom for some of it's riders to get in the breakaway and chase the stage win, there is no need to push the pace as everyone has already been distanced. If other teams work however he may have the chance to go for the stage win, winning a mountain stage in yellow is suffering he will want.

Tadej Pogacar - Has he recovered? I will say yes likely, he had a bad day in Loze but likely he'll have improved in the meantime, and this type of stage will suit him. I argue that racing will be wild and he may even attack in the first climb or early on in the day. Podium is certain as long as he's not having another terrible day, a stage win he's already had, and no point on trying to have a direct battle again with Vingegaard. If he's in the mood for fun he can attack early, this race has delivered an incredible show and that could be the perfect way to wrap it up.

Top 10 Fight - The fight for the podium opened with stage 17's breakaway. Last two days have further inspired breakaways. But like in the Loze stage, riders will be fully aware that they can jump spots - and possibly a stage win. The fight seemed to be only between Adam Yates and Carlos Rodríguez but no longer. Simon Yates, Pello Bilbao and Jai Hindley are within two minutes of Rodríguez. Even if not to climb up the GC, getting in a breakaway may be to equally protect their spots. The lower Top10 in Felix Gall, Sepp Kuss and David Gaudu are all contenders to make these moves.

So you can't really figure a structure for this day. The fight for the win was so ahead of the rest of the field, that plenty Top10 contenders have frequently sneaked into breakaways and then have their own internal battles, and their success motivated offensive racing. The GC fight is there (you can add Guillaume Martin who's 11th in the standings), outside of that, it's all for the stage win. Giulio Ciccone may be the exception, he is in a very tight battle with Felix Gall and Jonas Vingegaard for the KOM classification.

Fatigue and third week form will be crucial on this day. Some riders have built up perfectly for these days, whilst others are on their knees after a gruesome race that has been tough from start to finish. Add Jonathan Castroviejo, Thibaut Pinot, Chris Harper, Rafal Majka, Ben O'Connor, Mattias Skjelmose, Wout Poels, Tobias Johannessen, Michal Kwiatkowski, Ion Izagirre, Michael Woods, Krists Neilands and Gregor Mühlberger to the mix and you've got a perfect recipe for an explosive day.

Prediction Tour de France 2023 stage 20:

*** Felix Gall, David Gaudu, Chris Harper
** Jonas Vingegaard, Pello Bilbao, Wout Poels, Michal Kwiatkowski
* Tadej Pogacar, Adam Yates, Carlos Rodríguez, Jai Hindley, Sepp Kuss, Jonathan Castroviejo, Tobias Johannessen, Ion Izagirre, Michael Woods, Thibaut Pinot

Pick: David Gaudu